tech cold war

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ISBN: 978-1-962551-56-4

About the book

From two leading geopolitics experts and public policy executives, an urgent analysis of the relationship between technology, geopolitics and the role private companies play.

Are US and China headed toward a Technology Cold War? Founded on a belief of uninterrupted globalisation, Silicon Valley and global technology companies built their business on the assumption that technology supersede national borders and state power. But the geopolitical reality has caught up, and instead technology is now being weaponised in the geopolitical competition between US and China - with companies caught in between.

How geopolitics discovered technology

Over the last decade, technology has become a key concern for foreign policy-makers. It is not so much about old questions of how technology could trigger economic growth. It is about tech and geopolitical power - a concept so alien to the tech world itself. Silicon Valley believes that technology itself flattens the world. But geopolitical reality caught up with the tech industry and digital utopianism. As we write this book, the “weaponization” of tech value chains made daily headlines around the globe: The United States in particular is pursuing a strategy of achieving geopolitical goals by trying to leverage supposed “choke points” in tech value chain. For corporations who actually own a piece of technology that is supposed to be “weaponized”, these are challenging times.

I never thought I would see the day when semiconductor companies are as crucial to geopolitics as oil companies were in the last century”, an executive of a global semiconductor company told us in an interview. In the past year, more than 97% of CEO’s have adapted business plans and strategies to geopolitics, according to a survey by EY.

The weaponization of tech value chains is linked to an increasing geopolitical contest between the US and China. Tech is front and center in this competition. Both sides invent new policy tools with a high frequency, leveraging tech value chains and market access barriers for geopolitical purposes.

This book will explore the relationship between geopolitics and technology over the last 25 years, with a particular focus on the US and China. We trace how these formerly separate domains are now intertwined and what that in turn means for politics and business. We will describe how the perception of a changing balance of power between the US and China has influenced economic statecraft, how new policy tools have been developed to achieve geopolitical goals, how these new tools are shaping digital technologies and how companies react.

Praise for “The Tech Cold War”

  • "Tech Cold War" illustrates clearly how the realm of technology could be disrupted by geopolitical rivalry. In no uncertain terms, the authors lay out the state of play in the competition for technological dominance, the challenges and pitfalls of escalation, and the lessons for governments and businesses.

    Ambassador Dr. Christoph Heusgen, Chairman Munich Security Conference

  • "Tech Cold War" nails it: Technology competition has become a major fault line of geopolitics. Beijing has doubled down on the strategy of technology self-reliance, and the US is trying to decouple from China in many High Tech sectors. Baums and Butts outline the dangers of those shifts, but also covers geopolitical risk management for corporations. The book is a reality check for decision makers in politics and business.

    Jörg Wuttke, President Emeritus; European Chamber of Commerce in China

  • The global economy is undergoing a radical transformation marked by the emergence of new technologies and new geopolitical rivalry. Baums and Butts offer a stark warning as to what might happen when the two intersect as well as important clues as to how to prepare. It is a must read for anyone interested in the future of innovation and world politics.

    Prof. Abraham Newman, Director, BMW Center for German and European Studies, Georgetown U | Co-Author of “Underground Empire”

  • As someone deeply involved in the intersection of technology and international business, I found Tech Cold War by Ansgar Baums and Nicholas Butts to be an indispensable resource. The authors bring an unparalleled depth of hands-on knowledge to their analysis of the US-China technological rivalry. Their extensive backgrounds in geopolitical risk management and tech policy provide a nuanced exploration of the complex dynamics at play.

    Vitaly M. Golomb, Managing Partner, Mavka Capital and Best Selling Author of Accelerated Startup

  • It is impossible to predict the outcome of the tech cold war. But after reading Baums' and Butt's book, you can at least understand its ins and outs. They provide a brilliant overview of the stakes involved, the strategies available and the scenarios to prepare for.

    Ludwig Siegele, Senior Editor - AI Initiatives, The Economist

  • Dr. Katrin Suder, Former Undersecretary for Defense of Germany, board member and senior advisor

    Geopolitics is no longer a niche topic but affects companies on every level. This book from two of the leading experts in this field is highly recommended reading for tech managers.

    Dr. Katrin Suder, Undersecretary fo Defense (ret.), board member and senior advisor

  • Markets change all the time. The geopolitization of the economy is in full swing, and companies face a whole new environment. Vice versa, politicians struggle to understand how corporations react to geopolitical interferences in their business model. “Tech Cold War” is a timely guide to the geopolitics of business both for political decision-makers as well as corporate managers.

    Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Hermann Simon, Founder & Honorary Chairman of Simon-Kucher

  • For me, the most outstanding feature of the book is how it consistently integrates the particular perspective of the companies that are, ultimately, at the center of the Tech Cold War. It thereby sheds some much-needed light on the iterative back-and-forth between politics and business, actions and reactions, and, at times, outcomes that neither side intended. It shows the effects, but as much the limitations of political tech control.

    Björn Conrad, CEO Sinolytics

  • The authors not only explain, in a highly readable manner, the thinking behind governmental actions to control and steer the development of high tech. They also deliver actionable guidance to companies on how to become “geopolitical enterprises” in a world where governments are prioritizing national and economic security over their commercial interests. A timely contribution to the literature on tech competition between the United States and China, and a must read for government officials, business leaders and others who want to understand where global tech competition is headed.

    William Klein, Consulting Partner, FGS Global